By Wang Hengwen

王恒文

Recently, Itsunori Onodera, chairman of the LDP's policy research council, stated that Japan is willing to bear certain costs to continue using the military training grounds located on the US overseas territory of Tinian Island. This is the second time Japan has proposed the long-term deployment of forces on US soil, following a statement in September by Japan's current Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, expressing a desire to establish a training base for the Japanese Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) in the US.

近期，日本自民黨政策調(diào)查會(huì)長(zhǎng)小野寺五典稱，日本愿意承擔(dān)一定費(fèi)用以持續(xù)使用位于美國(guó)海外領(lǐng)地天寧島上的軍事訓(xùn)練場(chǎng)。這是繼今年9月日本現(xiàn)任首相石破茂表示希望在美國(guó)建立自衛(wèi)隊(duì)訓(xùn)練基地后，日本又一次提出在美國(guó)土地上長(zhǎng)期部署部隊(duì)。

Analysts believe that, according to the provisions of the Japan-US Security Treaty and the US-Japan Status of Forces Agreement, their alliance is not an equal relationship. Recently, Japan has deviated from its usual stance, attempting to break the constraints imposed by the two aforementioned documents. It aims to adjust the Japan-US alliance through a "small steps, fast pace" approach, seeking equality between the two sides. However, considering various factors, this goal is difficult to achieve.

分析人士認(rèn)為，根據(jù)《日美安保條約》和《日美地位協(xié)定》相關(guān)規(guī)定，日美同盟關(guān)系并不對(duì)等。日本最近一反常態(tài)，試圖突破上述兩個(gè)文件限制，意在通過(guò)“小步快跑”的方式，調(diào)整日美同盟關(guān)系，尋求雙方對(duì)等。然而，綜合多方面因素來(lái)看，這一目標(biāo)難以實(shí)現(xiàn)。

This June, the US military proposed a plan to relocate nearly half of the US forces currently stationed in Okinawa to Guam, Hawaii, and the US mainland. The US military's adjustment of its force deployment appears, on the surface, to be aimed at reducing the burden on the local population in Okinawa. In reality, it shifts more of the defense burden of the risk-prone first island chain onto Japan. In response, Japan is fully aware of the situation. The recent calls from Japanese politicians for the deployment of JSDF troops in the US are, in fact, expressions of dissatisfaction with the US military's relocation plan.

今年6月，美國(guó)軍方擬定了一項(xiàng)計(jì)劃，將把目前駐扎沖繩美軍的近一半兵力轉(zhuǎn)移至關(guān)島、夏威夷和美國(guó)本土。美軍的此番兵力部署調(diào)整，表面上是為“減輕沖繩當(dāng)?shù)孛癖娯?fù)擔(dān)”，實(shí)則是將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較大的第一島鏈防務(wù)壓力更多甩給日本。對(duì)此，日方心知肚明，日本政客近期接連要求在美國(guó)部署部隊(duì)的背后，就是在表達(dá)對(duì)美軍“大搬遷”的不滿。

On November 11, the National Diet of Japan held a special parliamentary session to elect the prime minister. Shigeru Ishiba, president of the Liberal Democratic Party, narrowly secured re-election as Prime Minister after two rounds of voting in the House of Representatives, avoiding the fate of becoming Japan's shortest-serving Prime Minister after WWII. However, Shigeru Ishiba faces numerous challenges in his future governance. In addition to having to address Japan's long-standing domestic economic and livelihood issues, his cabinet will inevitably encounter obstruction from opposition parties when making policy decisions and implementing measures. Against this backdrop, Shigeru Ishiba's emphasis on striving for an equal status with the US also reflects a desire to project a strong image, with the aim of boosting domestic support.

11月11日，日本國(guó)會(huì)舉行首相指名選舉，自民黨總裁石破茂在眾議院投票中歷經(jīng)兩輪角逐涉險(xiǎn)過(guò)關(guān)保住首相之位，避免了淪為二戰(zhàn)后日本最“短命”首相的命運(yùn)。然而，石破茂未來(lái)的執(zhí)政道路面臨重重困難，除了不得不面對(duì)日本國(guó)內(nèi)長(zhǎng)期積累的經(jīng)濟(jì)民生問(wèn)題，其內(nèi)閣在決策施政時(shí)也必然遭到來(lái)自在野黨的阻撓。在此背景下，石破茂強(qiáng)調(diào)要對(duì)美爭(zhēng)取平等地位，也有展現(xiàn)強(qiáng)硬形象，從而提升國(guó)內(nèi)支持率的考量。

Shigeru Ishiba has declared that he will push for the revision of the Japan-US Security Treaty, aiming to elevate the Japan-US relationship to a more equal alliance, similar to the one between the UK and the US. In recent years, the US has become fixated on the so-called great power competition and has actively eased military restrictions on Japan, granting it more autonomy within the alliance framework. From allowing Japan to produce the Patriot missiles, to announcing the restructuring of the US military command in Japan, and even permitting the maintenance of large US vessels in Japan, the US government's various tacit approvals and concessions have led Japan to develop an illusion of Japan-US equality.

石破茂宣稱，將推動(dòng)修改《日美安保條約》，把日美關(guān)系升級(jí)為與英美關(guān)系類似的對(duì)等同盟。近年來(lái)，美國(guó)執(zhí)迷所謂“大國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)”，主動(dòng)對(duì)日進(jìn)行軍事松綁，在同盟架構(gòu)中賦予其更多自主權(quán)。從同意日本生產(chǎn)“愛(ài)國(guó)者”導(dǎo)彈，到宣布重組駐日美軍司令部，再到允許美國(guó)大型艦艇在日本進(jìn)行維修……美國(guó)政府的種種默許和縱容，讓日本產(chǎn)生了“日美平等”的幻覺(jué)。

However, an illusion is ultimately just an illusion. There are essential differences between the defense relations between the US and the UK and between the US and Japan. The US and the UK are culturally similar, with their "special relationship" rooted in the anti-Fascist alliance of WWII. The level of mutual trust between the two far exceeds that of the US-Japan relationship. In contrast, Japan, as the culprit of the Pacific War and a defeated nation in WWII, has long been under the surveillance of the US. Although the US views Japan as a vanguard in implementing the so-called Indo-Pacific Strategy, it has never let down its guard. Ironically, the location Shigeru Ishiba proposed for the long-term deployment of the JSDF, Tinian Island, was the very site from which US B-29 bombers took off to drop atomic bombs on Japan at the end of WWII. Japan's focus on this island is likely to make the US more wary of its intentions.

不過(guò)，幻覺(jué)終究是幻覺(jué)。美英與美日防務(wù)關(guān)系有著本質(zhì)區(qū)別。美英在文化上相近，雙方的“特殊關(guān)系”建立在二戰(zhàn)時(shí)期的反法西斯同盟基礎(chǔ)上，二者的互信程度遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于日美關(guān)系。反觀日本，作為太平洋戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)“元兇”和二戰(zhàn)戰(zhàn)敗國(guó)，長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)都是美國(guó)的“監(jiān)管對(duì)象”。美國(guó)雖然將日本視為推行所謂“印太戰(zhàn)略”的馬前卒，但從未放下戒心。頗為諷刺的是，小野寺五典提出希望長(zhǎng)期派駐自衛(wèi)隊(duì)的天寧島，正是二戰(zhàn)末期美軍B-29轟炸機(jī)對(duì)日本投放原子彈時(shí)的起飛地點(diǎn)。日本圍繞該島做文章，極可能讓美方對(duì)其更加警惕。

In addition, with Donald Trump winning the US presidential election, he will likely continue the approach from his first term, adopting a more assertive stance toward allies. Taking all these factors into consideration, Japan's pursuit of an equal alliance with the US is unlikely to succeed. Its proposal to permanently deploy the JSDF on US soil is merely a rhetorical gesture and its so-called demand for equality is destined to remain a fleeting illusion.

此外，特朗普在美國(guó)總統(tǒng)大選中獲勝，他上任后大概率會(huì)延續(xù)其第一任期的做法，對(duì)盟友采取更加強(qiáng)勢(shì)的姿態(tài)。綜合種種因素，日本謀求日美對(duì)等同盟關(guān)系難以如愿，提出在美國(guó)土地上長(zhǎng)期部署自衛(wèi)隊(duì)不過(guò)是逞口舌之快，其所謂“平等”的要求也注定是鏡花水月。